- Amour
- Argo
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Django Unchained
- Les Misérables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty
Biggest surprise in this category: No surprises. If they had picked 10 nominees instead of nine, we would’ve seen either Moonrise Kingdom or The Master possibly make the cut.
Who should’ve been nominated: The Master, of course. It was my favorite film of 2012.
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: Les Misérables, sadly. But at least it’s not as bad of a nomination as last year's Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: Yesterday, I would’ve said Zero Dark Thirty, but without a director nod for Bigelow, I have to go with Lincoln now, which leads all films with 12 nominations. The last time a film won the Academy Award for Best Picture without having a nomination for its director was in 1989, when Driving Miss Daisy did it.
Who should win: Zero Dark Thirty. As a film I personally like Amour more, but I want to spread the amour since it’s a lock to win Best Foreign Film.
**
Performance by an actor in a leading role
- Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook
- Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
- Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables
- Joaquin Phoenix in The Master
- Denzel Washington in Flight
Biggest surprise in this category: John Hawkes not getting nominated for The Sessions.
Who should’ve been nominated: Matthew McConaughey for Killer Joe (which was never going to happen).
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: Washington. Besides the film being underwhelming, it’s a pretty standard role that has received far too much praise.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: Day-Lewis. When isn’t he the frontrunner?
Who should win: Phoenix. The role is crushing and easily the best of his career. The latter, however, can be said about Jackman and Cooper’s roles, too.
**
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
- Alan Arkin in Argo
- Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook
- Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master
- Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln
- Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained
Biggest surprise in this category: Not necessarily a big surprise, but Waltz getting the nod over his Django Unchained costar Leonardo DiCaprio is pretty interesting.
Who should’ve been nominated: DiCaprio for Django Unchained, but not at the expense of Waltz.
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: Everyone is deserving. I would, however, say Arkin is a comic- relief blip more than a fleshed-out character.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: Jones. But everyone on this list is a heavy hitter, so it’s anyone’s game.
Who should win: Seymour Hoffman. Alongside Phoenix, his performance could only be defined as meaty and powerful.
**
Performance by an actress in a leading role
- Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty
- Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
- Emmanuelle Riva in Amour
- Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Naomi Watts in The Impossible
Biggest surprise in this category: Marion Cotillard getting overlooked for Rust and Bone.
Who should’ve been nominated: Cotillard.
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: They are all deserving.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: It’s a two-woman race right now between Chastain and Lawrence.
Who should win: Riva. It’s one of the most heartbreaking performances I have ever seen. Plus, Oscar night (Feb. 24) will mark Riva’s 86th birthday. Remember, this is the 85thAnnual Oscars! What a gift that would be if she won!
**
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
- Amy Adams in The Master
- Sally Field in Lincoln
- Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
- Helen Hunt in The Sessions
- Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook
Biggest surprise in this category: Weaver making the cut over veteran Maggie Smith in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
Who should’ve been nominated: Ann Dowd for Compliance.
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: Hunt. I’m in the minority here, but I thought her performance was laughable.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: Hathaway, easily.
Who should win: I wasn’t a fan of the film, but Hathaway delivered big during her “I Dreamed a Dream” scene. If Jennifer Hudson can win an Oscar for singing in Dreamgirls, Hathaway probably should, too.
**
Achievement in directing
- Amour, Michael Haneke, Amour
- Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Ang Lee, Life of Pi
- Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
- David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Biggest surprise in this category: The exclusion of Katherine Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, Ben Affleck for Argo, and Tom Hooper for Les Misérables; first-time director Zeitlin making the cut, which is great!
Who should’ve been nominated: Bigelow.
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: Everyone is deserving, but Bigelow should’ve gotten the nod over Russell.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: Spielberg for Lincoln.
Who should win: Lee for Life of Pi.
**
Best foreign language film of the year
- Amour, Austria
- Kon-Tiki, Norway
- No, Chile
- A Royal Affair, Denmark
- War Witch, Canada
Biggest surprise in this category: France was snubbed for the exclusion of The Intouchables, which some thought should not have been its official entry, me included. I liked Rust and Bone more.
Who should’ve been nominated: Rust and Bone (even though France didn't submit it).
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: I haven’t seen Kon-Tiki or War Witch, so I can’t comment on those, but everything else is deserving.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: Amour by far.
Who should win: Amour by a landslide.
**
Best documentary feature
- 5 Broken Cameras
- The Gatekeepers
- How to Survive a Plague
- The Invisible War
- Searching for Sugar Man
Biggest surprise in this category: There were a lot of critically acclaimed docs this year that could’ve been included like This is Not a Film, Central Park Five, or The House I Live In, so the surprises were whichever docs you liked that didn’t make the cut.
Who should’ve been nominated: The Imposter and Ai Wei Wei: Never Sorry.
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: I haven’t seen 5 Broken Cameras, so I can comment on that film, but the other four are all very deserving.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: No real frontrunner.
Who should win: Searching for Sugar Man.
**
Adapted screenplay
- Argo, screenplay by Chris Terrio
- Beasts of the Southern Wild, screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
- Life of Pi, screenplay by David Magee
- Lincoln, screenplay by Tony Kushner
- Silver Linings Playbook, screenplay by David O. Russell
Biggest surprise in this category: No real big surprises here. Some are surprised Zeitlin/Alibar got a nod over Stephen Chobosky for The Perks of Being a Wallflower, but I’m not — I thought Wallflower was just average.
Who should’ve been nominated: Nothing sticks out to me as a major snub.
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: Everyone is deserving, although I have to say the first half of Silver Linings Playbook is much stronger than the second half.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: Kushner for Lincoln.
Who should win: Magee for adapting what some considered an unadaptable novel.
**
Original screenplay
- Amour, written by Michael Haneke
- Django Unchained, written by Quentin Tarantino
- Flight, written by John Gatins
- Moonrise Kingdom, written by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
- Zero Dark Thirty, written by Mark Boal
Biggest surprise in this category: Paul Thomas Anderson missing out for The Master.
Who should’ve been nominated: Anderson for The Master.
Who doesn’t deserve this nomination: John Gatins for Flight. Really? The scene in the hospital stairwell is reason enough to scoff at this nomination.
Who is the frontrunner as of today: Boal, probably. But if the Academy wants wit, then look no further than Tarantino or Wes Anderson/Coppola.
Who should win: Anyone but Gatins.
Thoughts about other categories:
Best Cinematography – This is Roger Deakins' (Skyfall) 10th Oscar nomination of his career. He is 0-9, but I really think the Academy wants to finally give it to him this year. Tenth time’s a charm, right?
Best Original Score – Sad The Master and Beasts of the Southern Wild were snubbed.
Best Original Song – Sad Paul Williams was snubbed for writing the beautiful song “Still Alive” from the documentary Paul Williams: Still Alive.
For a complete list of all Oscar nominations, visit oscars.com. The 85thAnnual Academy Awards air Feb. 24 on ABC.
— Kiko Martínez
