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In the U.S. economy enters a recession next year, Moody Analytics' chief economist , Mark Zandi, says home values could decline 20% on average nationally.
Home prices in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro are expected to drop nearly 11% over coming months, according to a recent Moody's Analytics report.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of the financial research firm, argues that home prices are set to decline an average of 15% nationally from their peak over the summer, Fortune Magazine reports
, citing the study.
In San Antonio, home values peaked in May 2022
, with prices hitting $348,000. Alamo City homeowners should expect their values to drop 10.7% from that peak if the U.S. economy doesn't enter a recession in the coming months, Fortune
reports, citing Zandi's analysis.
In other words, the median home value in San Antonio and the surrounding metro area should bottom out at around $311,479, according to Moody's. Home values here have declined for five consecutive months to $323,190 in October 2022, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors
However, if the U.S. does enter a recession next year, Zandi told Fortune
that homeowners can expect home values to drop 20% from their peaks.
Zandi also told the magazine that the continued decline in home prices is the result of higher mortgage rates, which are holding steady at 6.49% for a 30-year fixed loan, according to Freddie Mac
Those rates — the highest since the months leading up to the 2008 financial crisis — result from the Federal Reserve's continued efforts to combat inflation.
San Antonio's predicted home devaluations are less severe compared to Texas' other major cities. Moody's forecasts that homes in Austin could drop 16.3%, while homeowners in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth could see declines of 13%, Fortune
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