Turnout among Texas Democrats is drastically — and uncharacteristically — higher than among the state’s Republicans in early voting for the March 3 primary, prompting speculation a blue wave is finally washing over the Lone Star State.
Indeed, numbers show early voter turnout in the Democratic primary has nearby doubled from 2024, reaching 3.3%, while GOP turnout is down 0.2% to 2.8% over the same period. More than one million Texans cast early ballots during the first week of voting, according Texas Secretary of State data.
Early voting this year also is trending 120.7% higher for Democrats than the 2022 primary, the midterm year during the Biden administration. Meanwhile, Republican turnout is only 62.7% of that year’s total.
But does the trend bode well for the general, or are Democrats premature to celebrate?
“[T]here’s definitely cause for celebration,” Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson said. “Usually, the Republican primary turnout is larger than the Democratic primary turnout. But, this time, Democrats have 90,000 more votes in the bank than Republicans do.”
Since speaking with Jillson Tuesday morning, that chasm has widened to 112,000 votes and counting.
What’s more, Jillson pointed out that a sizable portion of Democratic turnout is comprised of people who don’t normally vote blue.
“For example, 92% of the votes cast in the Republican primary were cast by people who always vote Republican, whereas only 65% of votes cast in the Democratic primary are by longtime Democrats,” Jillson said. “The rest are cast by people who go back and forth — sometimes vote Republican, sometimes vote Democrat — and people who have never voted before or only vote in general elections.”
Bluer-than-usual Bexar
Democrats are also outperforming Republicans in certain conservative pockets of Bexar County, according to Jon Taylor, who chairs UT-San Antonio’s political science department. Polling sites in traditional GOP strongholds on the North Side, such as Encino Branch Library, Parman Library and Shavano Park, are seeing more Democrats voting than Republicans.
Taken together, are all those factors adding up to a blue wave? Possibly.
Some of the Democratic voting surge can be attributed to a referendum on President Donald Trump and an energized, angry base, according to Jillson. Conversely, Republican enthusiasm might be diminished due to growing criticism of many of the same White House policies.
“Democrats are really sort of up in arms about the Trump administration, about the ICE raids and about the on-and-off-again tariffs, the fact that inflation is still above the 2% target and few jobs are being created,” Jillson said. “So, Democrats are up in arms about that and energized to turn out in large numbers. And on the other side, Republicans are enervated by that set of facts and are turning out so far in smaller numbers.”
Both Jillson and Taylor agree that publicity around the tight Democratic primary between U.S. Senate hopefuls U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Texas Rep. James Talarico may be further driving turnout.
On the other side of the aisle, Republicans might see their party’s frontrunners for the same seat — incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — as compromised in different ways. Many in the GOP base see Cornyn as too moderate, Jillson argues, whereas Paxton is mired in controversy between his divorce, near-impeachment, alleged affairs and other scandals too numerous to name.
Between the increased Democratic enthusiasm and flagging interest among GOP voters, Texas Republicans have already have fallen behind to an irreparable degree, according to Jillson.
“[E]ven if the Republicans turn out in larger numbers on Election Day, they will not catch up with the Democrats,” he said.
But Dems shouldn’t pop the champagne just yet.
‘I’ll believe it when I see it’
As Taylor cautioned, the general is an entirely different animal, and it remains to be seen whether the blue wave will be a tsunami or a ripple.
“I’m cynical enough to say I’ll believe it when I see it,” Taylor said. “Don’t think just because you see voter enthusiasm in a primary that it will carry over to a general election. There are so many factors in play. Texas is still a default red state.”
While Democratic turnout is way up, it’s still abysmally low in Bexar County and throughout the state compared to elsewhere in the country. That could be partially due to the numerous impediments between voters and the ballot box, which make it harder to participate in Texas elections than those any other state, according to a 2020 Texas Tribune report.
“At best, in Bexar County and statewide, we’re talking 20%, 25% turnout if we are extraordinarily lucky in these primaries,” Taylor said. “In the past, turnout has been abysmal — in the single digits. So, to see turnout in the 20-to-25% range is wonderful, but it’s nothing to write home about in terms of primary voters and primary outcomes.”
And the course might correct to a degree by the time the general comes along, Jillson added, especially if Republicans see a need to defend their statewide power from a blue insurgency.
“As we get through the primaries and into the general election, I expect this to even out a little bit, because one party never gets to be energized by itself,” Jillson said. “Because the other party sees that energy and knows that unless they step up, they’re going to lose the election badly. And so they — the Republicans, in this case — would step up, if only in self defense.”
“I do expect 2026 to be a good Democrat year in Texas, and across the country,” he added. “But it won’t be uncontested. Republicans will find their voice and turn out in larger numbers than they seem to be turning out in this primary in Texas.”
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