The Republican primary between incumbent U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales and Brandon “AK Guy” Herrera to represent Texas’ 23rd Congressional District is heading to a runoff, since neither candidate pulled in more than 50% of the vote as of press time. Each earned just over 42%.
“Thank you President Trump and all those #TX23 constituents that support our campaign,” Gonzales tweeted late Tuesday evening. “Onward to a victorious May.”
At an election night presser in a Boerne hotel, Herrera — a YouTube influencer who’s never held public office —said recent revelations of Gonzales’ alleged affair with a staffer played a factor in closing the margin between the candidates as they face off for the second time in two years. Though still awaiting final results, Herrera sounded optimistic, saying he was performing 15% better than during the 2024 primary.
“A lot has changed recently,” Herrera said. “Voters are finding out exactly who their congressman is.”
When the two faced off in the 2024 primary, Herrera got within 400 votes of Gonzales, barely losing the primary contest for the district, which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso and includes a long swath of the U.S.-Mexico border. The razor thin margin showed a fissure in the Republican makeup of the 23rd District, between moderate Republicans and the far-right.
Gonzales has fielded criticism from the far-right for positions such as supporting background checks for gun buyers under 21 after the Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, which falls within his district. The vote led the state GOP to censure the congressman.
Gonzales also voted to legalize same-sex marriage and authorized the creation of a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. On Tuesday, Herrera said that commission would have “investigated Trump.”
Death haunts the campaign
This time things are different in the congressional matchup. Namely because Gonzales has been hunted by scandal since one of his staffers died after setting herself on fire in September.
Two weeks ago, the San Antonio Express-News published several reports accusing the married father of six of engaged in an affair with his Uvalde district director Regina Santos-Aviles in May 2024. Texts published by the paper allege Gonzales asked the staffer for a “sexy pic” and persisted after she said it was inappropriate.
Herrera seized on the opportunity to smear Gonzales over the reported affair, running ads about it in the first days of early voting.
“He used his position of power to pressure a subordinate into a sexual relationship,” Herrera said on Election Night. “He lied to the people, he lied to the press. He respects the people that little.”
Herrera also called Gonzales a “coward,” maintaining that his rival avoids public speaking events in light of the recent allegations.
Democrats could eye a pickup
Political scientists said that regardless of who wins the primary, Democrats are likely to see a pickup opportunity in November for the red-leaning district due to the perceived weakness of both candidates.
Herrera is a political novice with less than $900,000 in total campaign contributions this cycle. Anonymous Republican insiders also expressed doubts to the Express-News Tuesday as to whether he would be a competent policymaker around issues other than the Second Amendment.
Herrera countered the criticism Tuesday by mentioning border issues and AI data centers as two other planks in his platform.
Meanwhile, for Gonzales, allegations of an affair that ended in a fiery death have taken center stage.
“Both Gonzales and Herrera are damaged goods in a general election,” Texas political scientist Cal Jillson said. “The district leans red, but it’s not dependably Republican. Democrats could stand a chance if they pour money into the general election.”
Indeed, Jon Taylor, UT-San Antonio’s political science chair, told the Current ahead of the primary that he expects the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to help prime the pump.
“This is a golden opportunity, and they will pump in tons of money to help whoever the Democratic nominee is,” he said.
Late Tuesday evening, attorney and educator Katy Padilla Stout secured the Democratic nomination for the 23rd district with 52.3% of the vote.
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