Democrat James Talarico has pulled 5 points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in a new survey on Texas’ widely watched U.S. Senate race.
A survey of likely voters by Texas Public Opinion Research shows Talarico, a state representative from the Austin area, leading Paxton, the state’s attorney general, 45% to 40% — the Democrat’s largest lead during general election polling. TPOR identifies itself as a nonpartisan research organization, but it’s led by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.
The race figures is shaping up to be one of the priciest and most watched of the 2026 midterms and could help decide whether the U.S. Senate flips blue.
Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but the party smells blood in the water due to President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and Paxton’s history of scandals, including a near impeachment by the Texas Legislature, a since-scuttled FBI investigation and accusations of multiple affairs.
Meanwhile, Talarico’s second-quarter fundraising haul was triple that of his rival, and he’s been a constant presence on TV screens where his commercials feature a populist message built around affordability and cleaning up corruption.
The TPOR poll suggests Talarico’s message is landing with some voters.
Talarico scored 7 points above Paxton on a question asking which better understands working Texans’ economic challenges. Beyond that, respondents said by a 9-point margin that they trust Talarico over Paxton to address
Conducted July 15-17, the poll sampled 1,048 likely Texas voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.
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