Nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced Thursday, Jan. 22. So, how did we do with our predictions in the top eight categories? Below is a rundown of the probable nominees, a handful of spoilers and a few films and performances which deserved a nod but likely didn’t get it.
BEST PICTURE
The first two Avatar films were nominated for Best Picture, so why wouldn’t the third get a nod? We might be pushing our luck by icing out James Cameron’s epic sci-fi, but we’ll take our chances. We’re doing the same thing by leaving the Wicked sequel out despite the original one getting recognized too.
Official Predictions: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
Possible Spoilers: Avatar: Fire and Ash, No Other Choice, Wicked: For Good
Should Have Been a Contender: Nouvelle Vague
BEST DIRECTOR
The most vulnerable director on this list is Guillermo del Toro. His spot could easily go to Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi or Josh Safdie, who has made his first film without his brother Benny since his directorial debut in 2008. Austin-based filmmaker Richard Linklater released two solid films this year — Nouvelle Vague and Blue Moon.
Official Predictions: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Possible Spoilers: Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Should Have Been a Contender: Richard Linklater (Nouvelle Vague)
BEST ACTOR
These predictions seem like locks, but you never know where the surprises will happen. If Jesse Plemons or Joel Edgerton knock anyone out of the top five, it will be Ethan Hawke, which would likely be Blue Moon’s only nomination.
Official Predictions: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Possible Spoilers: Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
Should Have Been a Contender: Brendan Fraser (Rental Family)
BEST ACTRESS
This race really comes down to Jessie Buckley vs. Rose Byrne. Everyone else should be happy to be nominated. Emma Stone is the weakest of the five predictions, but when Stone teams up with Greek filmmaker Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), it usually spells success.
Official Predictions: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Possible Spoilers: Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)
Should Have Been a Contender: Julia Garner (Weapons)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
While it would be great to see Adam Sandler get his first Oscar nomination for his work in Jay Kelly (he should’ve gotten one for Paul Thomas Anderson’s 2002 rom-com Punch-Drunk Love and the Safdie Brothers’ 2019 crime thriller Uncut Gems), he’s only a dark horse this year. In 2024, Sean Penn called the Academy cowards, so maybe that hurts his chances.
Official Predictions: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Possible Spoilers: Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)
Should Have Been a Contender: Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is the toughest category to predict. We’re giving a slot to Odessa A’zion from Marty Supreme, but something tells us that the Wicked stans won’t let their beloved musical go home without at least one acting nom, which it really doesn’t deserve in our honest opinion.
Official Predictions: Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Possible Spoilers: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
Should Have Been a Contender: Zoey Deutch (Nouvelle Vague)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Two horror movies up for a screenplay Oscar? It could happen. But an upset nod for a scrappy indie darling like Sorry, Baby could happen too.
Official Predictions: It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Weapons
Possible Spoilers: The Secret Agent, Sorry, Baby
Should Have Been a Contender: Sirât
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Our top five picks are adapted from a South Korean film, a classic 19th century gothic novel, a modern novel featuring William Shakespeare, a Thomas Pynchon novel (loosely inspired) and a modern novella about an American railroad worker. They’re all uniquely deserving.
Official Predictions: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
Possible Spoilers: No Other Choice, Wake Up Dead Man
Should Have Been a Contender: The Life of Chuck
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