Circumstances could help Rolando Pablos become San Antonio’s first Republican mayor in 30 years

Low voter turnout, competitive city council runoffs in conservative districts and a lack of social media presence from rival Gina Ortiz Jones could help Rolando Pablos become San Antonio’s first Republican mayor since 1995, according to one seasoned political observer.

Although San Antonio has gone blue in every presidential election since 2004, a unique set of circumstances Pablos, a fiscal conservative aligned with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, a path to victory in what in most other cases would be a progressive blowout, University of Texas at San Antonio political scientist Jon Taylor said.

“We’ve seen that trend in Houston with a conservative Democrat, John Whitmire, winning an election [in a blue city],” Taylor said. “So, it makes you wonder if it’s possible that Pablos might be in the right place at the right time, especially with low voter turnout and the perception that City Hall is not very effective, particularly when facing financial issues.”

Taylor said he doesn’t expect voter turnout for the June 7 runoff to be much higher than during the primary, in which an abysmal 9.3% of registered Bexar County voters cast ballots. That’s the lowest turnout for a local election since 2013, when only 7.6% of registered voters showed up.

Taylor said Pablos can only become San Antonio’s first Republican mayor since oral surgeon Bill Thornton was elected in the mid-1990s if runoff ends up being another low-turnout contest.

Runoffs in high-turnout conservative city council districts further complicate matters for Jones, who would be San Antonio’s first openly LGBTQIA+ mayor, if elected. Analysts consider the runoffs in traditionally conservative districts 8 and 9 partisan contests, and if those fights mobilize right-wing voters there, it would be to Pablos’ advantage.

“[Pablos] can go with the fiscally conservative argument and attract those more moderate Republican voters, especially in districts 8 and 9 and some of the business community,” Taylor said. “If he gets an endorsement of someone like Nelson Wolff, all of a sudden you end up as a Republican winning in a blue city.”

Taylor added that Jones’ lack of social media presence is also troubling.

Following Jones’s primary victory, the Democrat’s communications manager, Jordan Abelson, told the Current the numbers speak to her ultimate electability.

“I mean, we’ve got a coalition all over the city that you can see from those election results, and we’re going to keep on doing what we’re doing.”

However, Taylor said staying the course could be a costly mistake for Jones, considering the demographic her campaign is hoping to appeal to the most.

Jones polled particularly well with young progressive voters between 18 and 29 years old. However, that demographic also gets most of their information from social media, according to Taylor.

“On Twitter, she hasn’t updated anything since March 4,” he said. “When it comes to Instagram, the last time she posted something was back in January. Facebook’s the only one where she’s done any sort of updates on election night, which strikes me as a little odd. Even her website has not been updated.”

Taylor added that while Pablos’ social media presence is even less active than Jones’, that’s less likely to hurt him since the voters he’s trying to appeal to are middle-aged or older.

On the flip side, Taylor said Pablos’s Achilles heel would be to go “full MAGA” and focus on culture war issues in a last-ditch attempt to garner traction.

“Based on his background, you would think that Pablos is not MAGA, per se,” Taylor said. “But, given that he served as [Gov. Greg] Abbott’s Secretary of State, you would think that he leans the same way that Abbott does. Which means, if you have to play the culture war card, you play the culture war card, especially if he’s behind.”

Regardless of who wins, it’s likely both Jones and Pablos would find it hard to govern, considering neither has held elected office or worked in city government.

“They can do some things and have some influence, but it ultimately rests with the city manager to run the day-to-day affairs of the city,” Taylor said. “I think [Pablos or Jones] can be effective, but there’s definitely going to be a learning curve, and an even much steeper learning curve than what Ron Nirenberg had.”

Even so, Jones staffer Abelson brushed off concerns about the candidate’s lack of city-level government experience.

“There have been very, very successful mayors that have never held city council positions,” Abelson said.

The only time in the past 70 year when San Antonio voters elected a mayor with no prior City Council experience was when they chose Phil Hardberger to run the city in 2005. Hardberger served as chief justice on Texas’s Fourth Court of Appeals.

Pablos and Jones will face off in the runoff’s first debate at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday at San Antonio College’s Loftin Student Center Fiesta Room.

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This article appears in Apr 30 – May 13, 2025.