A voter leaves a north-of-downtown polling place. Credit: Sanford Nowlin

Early-voting numbers in the mayoral runoff between Rolando Pablos and Gina Ortiz Jones show strong turnout on the city’s more affluent and conservative North Side, potentially spelling trouble for Jones, the race’s progressive candidate, University of Texas at San Antonio political scientist Jon Taylor told the Current.

A total of 13,699 people cast ballots Tuesday, the first day of early voting, Bexar County Elections Department data shows. That’s more than double the number cast the first day of early voting for the April 22 citywide election, which narrowed the number of mayoral candidates from 27 down to Jones and her conservative rival.

What’s more, Tuesday’s turnout is the highest first-day early voting total since the contentious 2019 runoff between Mayor Ron Nirenberg and Greg Brockhouse, historical data indicates.

Of the top 10 busiest polling stations over the past two days, seven are located in districts 8, 9 and 10, accounting for 46% of the total votes cast, according to the Bexar Elections Department. Of the remaining three, one is located in District 6, the other in District 7 and the final at Wonderland of the Americas mall.

That high North Side turnout could be troubling news for Jones, UTSA’s Taylor warned.

“If I was the Jones campaign, I would be getting my butt out there and start getting out the vote,” Taylor said. “If the highest turnout is concentrated in the heavily conservative districts of 8, 9 and 10, then the Pablos campaign is making a concerted effort to make that early push. Most often in this town, if you win the early vote, you win the election.”

A string of new attack ads vying to link Jones to police-accountability groups and accusing her of shuttering military bases during her time as Under Secretary of the Air Force also could be hindering her support, Taylor said. The ads are paid for by the Texas Economic Fund, a conservative Political Action Committee tied to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

The Express-News Editorial Board’s endorsement of Pablos, who served for two years as Texas Secretary of State under Abbott, also isn’t helping matters much for Jones, according to the professor.

“Combine that with the negative advertising and text messages going out left and right, this is definitely a problem for the Jones people,” Taylor added.

Early voting for the mayoral runoff runs through June 3. Polls will then reopen f7 a.m.-7 p.m. on June 7, Election Day. Residents can find polling station information and verify their registration status by visiting the Bexar County Election Department’s website.

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This article appears in May 29 – Jun 11, 2025.

Michael Karlis is a multimedia journalist at the San Antonio Current, whose coverage in print and on social media focuses on local and state politics. He is a graduate of American University in Washington,...