Texas is more than a month away from the peak of the crisis, which is likely to hit the state May 2, according to a state-by-state analysis by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The United States as a whole will hit its peak earlier, on April 15. But that’s still days after the Alamo City’s order expires.
May 2 will mark both the date of the virus’ peak drain on Texas’ hospital resources and the state’s highest number of COVID-19 related deaths, according to the IHME, an independent research center at the University of Washington. It made those projections by modeling statistics collected by the World Health Organization and local and national governments.
By May 2, around 11,000 COVID-19 patients are likely to be hospitalized in Texas, taking up more than a third of the state’s total hospital beds. Nearly 1,640 patients will need to be treated in intensive care, occupying three-quarters of the state’s 2,259 available ICU beds.
IHME’s modeling suggests COVID-19 related deaths will peak in Texas that same date, when 102 are projected to die in a single day.
Worth noting: the IHME’s modeling assumes the public is practicing strong social distancing and other protective measures. However, it also assumes Texas Gov. Greg Abbott continues not to implement a statewide stay-at-home order and won’t mandate closure of all non-essential services.
After Texas’ potentially devastating peak, the number of deaths and hospitalizations would drop sharply by the beginning of June, according to IHME’s projections. The virus could run its course by early July.
Even so, IMHE expects 4,150 Texans to die from COVID-19 related causes by August 4. It also predicts more than 82,000 nationwide will succumb to the disease by then.
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This article appears in Mar 25 – Apr 7, 2020.
