ICE agents make an arrest in this file photo. Credit: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

This story was first published in Reporting Texas, a student newsroom of the University of Texas at Austin

Latinos in Texas and elsewhere — a demographic some credit with helping Donald Trump win a second term — are starting to turn on the president as consumer confidence plunges and recession fears rise, according to polling released this week.

In the 2024 election, Trump won 14 of the 18 Texas counties within 20 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border, flipping seven counties that voted for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Those flipped counties included Starr, whose population is 97% Latino and voted 58% for Trump — the first time since 1892 it had gone Republican in a presidential election.

“After Nov. 7, we saw this idea that Latinos were moving to the right, or possibly up for grabs,” said Ray Serrano, research and policy director of advocacy group League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC).

But LULAC’s new polling, released Monday, found that 66% of Texas’ registered Latino voters now hold an unfavorable view of Trump. The poll found 8% of Texas Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 said they would change their vote if given the chance.

“Granted, there’s still 1,360 days remaining,” Serrano said. “But, these first 100 days have shown us that the optimism is dissipating, even for the Trump-supporting Latinos.”

The poll, which surveyed 1,002 registered Latino voters across the U.S. between April 11-19, was led by pollsters Matt Barreto of the University of California Los Angeles and Daron Shaw of the University of Texas at Austin. The survey was sponsored by LULAC in partnership with nonprofit advocacy groups UnidosUS, Voces Unidas and Climate Power en Acción.

According to Barreto’s and Shaw’s polling, Texas’ largest minority voting bloc is turning on Trump primarily over economic concerns.

“When people are asked to whom they attribute the condition of the economy, the overwhelming majority chose Trump at this point,” Shaw said. “There’s not a retrospective referendum here on Biden. So, we’ve already turned the page, and Latinos seem to be looking at Trump and his policies.”

The poll found that 56% of Texas’ Latino voters said the economy is worse now than it was 12 months ago. Further, 51% said they blamed Trump for the rising cost of living, and 53% speculated that Trump’s economic policies, including his ongoing trade war with China, will make them worse off next year.

Only 16% of Texas Latinos blamed Biden for the rising cost of living.

Further hampering Trump’s support among Latino voters both in Texas and nationally is his administration’s crackdown on immigration.

Although 83% of Texas respondents said they support deporting dangerous immigrant criminals who pose “legitimate safety and security threats to our communities,” that same number of Texas Latino voters also said Trump and congressional Republicans should not be targeting undocumented migrants without criminal records.

According to the poll, 36% of Texas Latinos know of employers that have lost workers due to their fear of immigration-enforcement raids. Another 28% said they know of parents keeping their children home because of anxiety about being detained while at school. And 40% of Texas Latinos said they’re afraid of being detained, even if they’re U.S. citizens or have legal status.

“If the immigration scenario continues to look ugly, and the economy is not rebounding, I think those are both ingredients for potentially a bad midterm for Republicans,” Barretto said.

Barretto’s warning to Republicans echoes that of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, recently said the midterms could be a “bloodbath” for Republicans if Trump’s tariffs push the country into recession.

Subscribe to SA Current newsletters.

Best of San Antonio Nominations are Now Live

Recession, immigration fears erode Latino support for Trump in Texas, poll finds

Michael Karlis

The price tag to buy San Antonio Spur Tony Parker’s mansion has dropped by nearly half

This San Antonio century home for sale was once lifted on jacks to add a new first floor

San Antonio women-owned restaurants and bars everyone should try

SoCal punk pioneers the Descendents brought infectious energy to San Antonio

Related Stories