Respected election watcher warns Texas GOP’s redistricting efforts could blow up in their faces

The bid by Gov. Greg Abbott and other Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s election maps to win five more seats for the party in Congress is a risky maneuver that could endanger previously safe GOP incumbents, according new analysis from one of the country’s best-respected election watchers.

The Cook Political Report crunched the numbers on Abbott’s redistricting push and found that state Republicans could easily target three Democratic seats, including two in South Texas and one in Houston, during the legislature’s special session. However, adding two additional seats would be a risky move that puts previously reliable Republican strongholds at risk, Cook analyst David Wasserman writes.

“Beyond that, a more ambitious plan — say, an attempt to flip five — is possible but also increases the chances that previously safe GOP incumbents find themselves having to campaign harder in what’s likely to be a tough cycle for Republicans,” according to Wasserman.

Republicans face serious headwinds in the 2026 midterms due to President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity. While Trump pressured Texas’ Republican leadership to embark on their current redistricting plan to avoid major GOP losses in the House, that same ploy could spell disaster for some in districts inadvertently made more competitive, Wasserman said.

In a separate Cook Political Report breakdown, analyst Erin Covey predicted the GOP could easily pick up a pair of South Texas districts that have swung considerably more red. However, the party’s attempts to redraw urban districts in Houston and Dallas could be a shitshow.

“[D]emolishing blue seats in Houston and Dallas could put several of their own members at risk,” Covey said. “Currently, none of the state’s 25 Republicans will face competitive reelection fights next year. A more aggressively gerrymandered map could leave some incumbent Republicans vulnerable if their ruby-red districts are watered down.”

What’s more, Covey argues mid-cycle redistricting schemes are “littered with pitfalls.” That’s especially true in fast-growing Texas, where continued population shifts can make it hard to guess a geographic area’s partisan temperature.

“During Trump’s first term, Democrats made significant inroads in the booming suburbs around the state’s four major metropolitan areas, and Joe Biden lost the state by less than six points in 2020, marking the strongest performance from a Democratic presidential nominee in Texas in a quarter century,” Covey said of the state’s brisk partisan shifts. “Four years later, Hispanic voters — particularly in South and West Texas — swung hard to the right, powering Trump’s 14-point victory.”

Subscribe to SA Current newsletters.

Follow us: Apple News | Google News | NewsBreak | Reddit | Instagram | Facebook | Twitter | Or sign up for our RSS Feed

This article appears in Jul 10-23, 2025.