San Antonio is the large Texas metro least prepared to thrive in the decades ahead, according to the Geography of Prosperity Index, a new study unveiled at Austin’s SXSW festival that measures how U.S. population centers are poised to adapt to the future.
The study authors — demographic futurist Bradley Schurman and data consultant Jaymes Cloninger — ranked the nation’s 250 most-populous urban metro areas using five key metrics on a scale of zero to 100: Automation Readiness, Climate Resilience, Governance & Foresight, Population Renewal and Social Cohesion.
Of the total, San Antonio came in at No. 151, largely due to its dismal scores in Governance & Foresight and Social Cohesion.
In contrast, the future-ready cities that landed near the top of the index — No. 2 Durham, No. 3 Ann Arbor and No.4 Boston, for example — invest heavily in education, have easy access to clean drinking water and are more cohesive, in that they’re not as economically or racially segregated.
Social Cohesion measures trust in public institutions, civic participation, inclusion and social stability. On this front, San Antonio remains one of the nation’s most economically segregated cities, dimming its ability to move forward in a cohesive manner.
Meanwhile, Governance & Foresight assesses the quality, competence and long-term orientation of local leadership and institutions, including planning capacity, fiscal health, coordination and ability to anticipate future challenges.
With regard to that category, San Anton has a meager tax base and a city government focused on short-term political wins — think international flights and sports stadiums — rather than long-term investment in human capital. Cities that scored high in the Government & Foresight metric, including No. 8 Raleigh, are willing to make bold investments may not pay off for decades, Schurman explained during a panel at SXSW over the weekend.
“Sixty years ago, when the furniture industry basically collapsed on itself, [Raleigh] started investing in technology,” Schurman said. “So, this is a 60-year bet that is now paying-off.”
Compare that to San Antonio, which instead has prioritized projects including SeaWorld, the Alamodome and the since-razed Fiesta Plaza Mall, mockingly known as the Pink Elephant. Meanwhile, the city has lured low-skill manufacturing and call-center investments, both susceptible to job losses from Artificial Intelligence.
While the Alamo City scored particularly poorly in Social Cohesion and Governance & Foresight, it showed deficiencies across the board, according to the study. Indeed, our metro ranks below average across all five categories, suggesting structural flaws rather than a few bad data points.
Climate and other crises
It will take “sustained investment in infrastructure, climate adaptation and governance reform,” to get San Antonio up to par with the state’s other large metros, the study authors wrote.
The report’s Population Renewal category, based on U.S. Census data, examines whether a region can sustain its population and workforce over time, while Climate Resilience assesses a city’s exposure to climate change by measuring its extreme heat, flooding, drought, fires and severe storms such as hurricanes.
“Prosperous places aren’t those untouched by extreme weather — they’re ones investing early, reducing risk, and building systems that can withstand repeated shocks,” according to the study.
Over the summer, San Antonio experienced its worst flooding in decades, which claimed the lives of 15 people. However, much-needed mitigation projects aren’t in the short-term works, and the city’s next infrastructure bond is expected to be smaller than the previous one due to lower-than-expected revenue.
Meanwhile, Automation Readiness assesses how prepared a region’s workforce and industries are for the widespread adoption of AI. For that category, researchers examined each metro’s occupational exposure, education and skills pipelines, innovation capacity and economic adaptability.
San Antonio’s workforce is primarily composed of low-wage, blue-collar workers, the study notes. That — combined with a lackluster pipeline of college graduates and continued struggles to attract innovative, high-paying employers — means San Antonio’s economic outlook is dim as AI retools a variety of industries.
Cities such as Austin, the San Francisco Bay Area, Boston and Pittsburgh, which have evolved as tech centers, placed highest in this category.
“They’re all doing well within this space right now, but those places unintentionally became giant sucking tools for all the talent,” Schurman said . “In other parts of the country, they don’t have the same talent level, the same investment level, the same educational systems in place to support this transition.”
Even so, not all hope is lost for San Antonio or any other city low on the list, the futurist said.
“Every city can improve, every city has the power to get better,” Schurman said. “And in fact, if cities make minor tweaks, they can really see outsized results at the end of the day.”
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