Texas Republicans are in for another three months of mudslinging between Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn after the two bitter rivals advanced to a May 26 runoff in Tuesday’s primary.
The two rivals are neck-and-neck with much of the Election Day vote yet to be reported. The Associated Press declared before 10 p.m. that the two would make the runoff.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, a second-term Houston congressman who entered the race in October, finished in a distant third. Hunt saw a deluge of spending against him from PACs affiliated with both Cornyn and Paxton’s campaign in the final weeks of the race, as both campaigns sought to lock him out of the runoff and increase their own ballot share by diminishing his.
Hunt had to give up his House seat in order to run for Senate, bringing this chapter of his political career to a close for now.
While polling and operatives in both camps anticipated a Paxton-Cornyn runoff matchup, the narrow margin indicates that the level of spending and viciousness, already high on both accounts, will only increase.
While polling of the race suggested Cornyn and Paxton would advance to a runoff, most polls showed Paxton either leading or tied for first. Cornyn’s place atop the field with the early vote in is a good sign for the senior senator, who is facing the most significant threat to his 35-year reign atop Texas GOP politics, a period in which he’s never lost a race.
The close race between the two is expected to intensify the lobbying efforts among Cornyn’s allies in Washington, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, for President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Trump has thus far chosen to stay out of the race, calling all three candidates friends, but the tight contest only increases the value of his stamp of approval.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday night, Cornyn reminded voters that he had won a runoff election before — in the Republican primary for attorney general, in 1998. He added that he understood why Trump had stayed out of the race while it was a three-way contest to avoid “disappoint[ing] some of his own base.”
“I think he wanted to see me earn this nomination,” Cornyn said. “And we are well on the path to doing [so] before he made any kind of decision. But when or if he makes a decision and to get involved in the race is entirely up to him.”
The GOP Senate primary has enormous stakes. The runoff winner will go on to face either state Rep. James Talarico or U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a contest where Democrats see their best chance to win a statewide race — which has eluded them for over 30 years — since Beto O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of doing so in the 2018 U.S. Senate race.
“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” Cornyn said Tuesday night.
Paxton, however, pitched himself as a Republican unity candidate, making overtures to Hunt and Cornyn voters at his election night party speech. He acknowledged that Democrats will make the race competitive, and said he would work to bring the party together and counteract Democratic enthusiasm.
“As Attorney General, I’ve won three elections, and I’ve won those general elections because I focused on uniting our party,” Paxton said. “We still have an important runoff ahead, no doubt. But I think everyone in this room, everyone in Texas and everyone in Washington knows where this is headed. I will be the Republican nominee, and we must stay focused, because the Democrats have never been more radical.”
Republicans in Texas and Washington have been clear-eyed about the dangers of the general election, especially as Democratic voter enthusiasm surged throughout the party’s own competitive primary. Thune, Cornyn and others have made the case to Trump — and Republican voters — that a Paxton candidacy would require massive amounts of spending among Republicans to keep Texas’ Senate seat red, a scenario the party would rather avoid to deploy money to competitive races in Georgia, Maine and North Carolina.
Cornyn’s allies have also argued that Paxton, who has weathered allegations of fraud, abuse of office and infidelity in his three terms as attorney general, would be a drag on the rest of the Republican ticket in Texas. (Paxton was acquitted during an impeachment trial accusing him of abuse of office, and state securities fraud charges were dropped.)
To that effect, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, and Senate Leadership Fund, a Senate leadership-connected super PAC, have deployed millions to boost Cornyn’s image and have been unusually harsh towards Paxton.
Paxton addressed the spending gap between the two, noting that a majority of voters still did not select Cornyn even after over $70 million spent on his behalf. Paxton spent less than $5 million in the primary.
“We proved something they’ll never understand in Washington,” Paxton said. “Texas is not for sale.”
When Paxton first entered the race last April, public and private polling showed the attorney general beating Cornyn by double digit margins. But the deluge of money Cornyn and his allies have raised and deployed through the cycle successfully improved the senior senator’s position. Cornyn allies have argued that their significant financial advantage over Paxton can neutralize the hardline attorney general’s advantage in a runoff, which typically has a smaller and more conservative electorate.
Whether or not Hunt voters return the polls come May — or if Hunt endorses — will affect which candidate wins the runoff. Hunt did not immediately endorse one of his opponents, but he has been highly critical of Cornyn on the campaign trail, arguing that the septuagenarian senator is out-of-touch with the party’s MAGA base and that a younger candidate is needed to carry out Trump’s agenda into the next decade.
Both camps have promised a bruising runoff. Cornyn told Politico shortly before the primary that a runoff would be a “miserable experience” for Paxton, who has a long list of ethical baggage that the Cornyn campaign has and will continue to attack him on.
“Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton,” Cornyn said.
Meanwhile, Paxton’s team argues that the full might of a negative campaign against Cornyn has not yet occurred and will diminish his position. One of Paxton’s closing primary ads highlighted Cornyn’s support for a bipartisan gun safety bill that he worked on in 2022 and which earned him boos at the state GOP convention that year.
While Cornyn and Paxton will continue their feud for another 12 weeks, Democrats can spend that period fundraising and pivoting to the general election, a rare advantage in a state that affords them very few.
This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.
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