Texas Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, a U.S. Senate candidate speaks during a campaign stop at San Antonio’s Assembly Hall earlier this year. Credit: Michael Karlis

State Rep. James Talarico is surging in online betting markets for the Texas Democratic Senate primary race as reports circulate of lower-than-expected turnout in Dallas County.

Talarico is running against U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, whose home base is in Dallas.

Crockett’s campaign is concerned about the number of voters being turned away from polling stations there because they did not go to their correct voting precinct, reportsJames Barragán, host of Spectrum News political show TX Capital Tonight.

In an effort to shutdown countywide voting centers, Dallas County Republicans earlier this year changed the rules on where voters can cast ballots. Under the new rules, they must vote in their own precincts.

Crockett’s team told Barragán that they are working to get the word out to her supporters.

Even so, the confusion in Dallas County appears to be enough for online gamblers. Talarico hit 90% victory odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket Tuesday afternoon — his highest odds yet in the campaign.

Kalshi officials said Talarico’s surging odds have a spillover effect, driving up the odds of Democrats flipping Texas’s Senate seat blue to an all-time high of 37%.

So, how accurate are betting websites when predicting elections?

Polymarket accurately predicted the results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election when most polling had Kamala Harris in the lead, while Kalshi recently inked a deal with CNN and CNBC to share real-time prediction data.

Even so, Stanford political science professor Andrew Hall warned in a Substack post last year that prediction markets can be manipulated for financial gain, thereby affecting data outcomes.

Polls are open in Texas until 7 p.m. Tuesday. As long as registered voters are in line by then, they’ll still be able to cast their ballots. More information about polling site locations are available at the Bexar County Election Department website.

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Michael Karlis is a multimedia journalist at the San Antonio Current, whose coverage in print and on social media focuses on local and state politics. He is a graduate of American University in Washington,...