A new poll of Texas’ Hispanic likely voters shows them supporting Democratic candidates in the state’s Senate and gubernatorial races by a 2-1 margin — a major reversal for a voting bloc that swung in favor of President Donald Trump two years ago.
The survey, conducted for the Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision, comes as wider polling shows Gov. Greg Abbott and U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton, both Republicans, facing tight races in what’s normally a deep red state. Trump’s deep unpopularity has also created headwinds for the GOP nationwide.
The poll, conducted Aug. 26-Sept. 3 by Democratic firm Hart Research and Republican firm OnMessage Inc., included an oversample of Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley, which was key to Trump’s 2024 coalition. The Valley subsample showed Democrats 14 points ahead of Republicans, or 53%-39%, on the generic ballot.
That shift is significant, considering Trump carried Lone Star State Hispanics by 10 points — and also because the Valley is home to three significant House races, those in districts 15, 28 and 34.
There are other takeaways, though:
•In the state’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Paxton, the state’s attorney general, among Hispanic voters by 63% to 30%, including 73% of independents.
•Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, Abbott’s general-election opponent, leads 60%-33% among Hispanic voters, even though the incumbent governor pulled 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2022.
•18% of Texas Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 disapprove of the job he is doing, and 22% of Hispanic Trump voters said they wouldn’t support a Republican House candidate in a generic matchup.
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