San Antonio coffee roaster and shop What’s Brewing is facing Trump’s new tax on Brazilian imports, including coffee beans. Credit: Kat Stinson

With President Donald Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports set to take effect this Friday, San Antonio coffee connoisseurs may want to brace themselves for a costlier cup. Brazil is the world’s biggest coffee exporter, and the South American country supplies about a third of the total unroasted beans imported into the United States, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “My dad always had a saying — when Brazil coughs, the whole world catches a cold,” said Sami Chbeir, head roaster for What’s Brewing Coffee Roasters, San Antonio’s oldest coffee shop and roaster.

Chbeir, who now co-owns the business his father founded in 1979, said he expects to feel the sting from Trump’s new tax on Brazilian goods.
Chbeir’s devoted customer base regularly returns to the business to play its pinball machines and sip its specialty roasts, many of which are sourced from Brazil and roasted in-house. But the impact doesn’t end there — a large share of other local coffee shops directly source their beans from What’s Brewing, meaning it’s not the only business facing the prospect of higher prices.

“No customer wants to see coffee go from $10 a pound to $13 a pound,” Chbeir said. But that may be what’s in store. What’s Brewing has already absorbed $75,000 in other tariff-related costs, and Chbeir warned that if Trump makes good on his threat to punish Brazil, the move would upend pricing and supply chains, affecting coffee roasters and shops nationwide. “It’s market manipulation at its most misguided,” he said. “We threw tea in the harbor to protest unjust taxes and began drinking coffee instead. Americans may have to go back to tea now!”

Politically motivated

Trump proposed the 50% tariff on Brazil in a July Truth Social post, demanding that country end its “witch hunt” against former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who faces trial for allegations he engineered a coup attempt. Trump framed the tariff as punishment for the current Brazilian administration’s actions.

But the tax increase may not damage Brazil as much as the president hopes, especially when it comes to coffee, Chbeir said. Given the demand for its beans, the South American nation could easily find trade partners elsewhere.

“It’s shortsighted,” he said. “The U.S. isn’t the only coffee-drinking company in the world. Brazil will find a market.”

Indeed, Chbeir points out the U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil. His claim is backed by a study from the United States Trade Representative, which calculates our nation’s current trade surplus with Brazil at $7.4 billion.

New sources

The team at What’s Brewing has already found ways to mitigate rising coffee costs as Trump plays havoc with global trade.

“What we’ve been doing is finding coffee from Mexico,” Chbeir explained. “We’ve purchased two containers of coffee from a contact there, all to offset the price of coffee from Brazil.”

Even so, Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs are taking their toll.

“We’ve already lost around $375,000 in projected profit, and now we’re compounding this with the potential Brazil tariff,” Chbeir said.

He predicts larger chains such as Dutch Bros. and Dunkin would suffer the worst damage from the Brazil tariffs. Dutch Bros. blends beans from Brazil, Colombia and El Salvador to produce its signature roast, according to the company’s website.

Coffee purveyors both large and small will likely have little choice but to pass on costs to consumers. Some will probably do that more aggressively than others, Chbeir said.

“If coffee prices rise, honest shops will adjust fairly,” he added. “Others might exploit the media frenzy to hike prices more than necessary.”

At the end of the day, Chbeir said his primary concern is on shielding customers from Trump’s trade tiff.

“We’ve got a large, loyal following and we want to keep doing the best we can for them,” he said.

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