Trump tariffs will kill 410,000 jobs in Texas, longtime state economist warns

As President Donald Trump’s trade war escalates, the Lone Star State stands to lose 410,000 jobs and $51.7 billion in annual gross product, new data from a well-known Texas economist shows.

A brief released Thursday by Waco-based the Perryman Group cautions that Texas would bear more of the economic burden than any other state if the administration continues its tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. U.S. markets have plunged recently over concerns about the economic fallout of Trump’s on-again-off-again taxes on foreign trading partners.

Mexico is Texas’ No. 1 source of imports, accounting for $157.6 billion in trade last year, according to Perryman Group’s analysis. The state also has significant exposure when it comes to trade involving Canada and China.   “Many goods pass back and forth across the border multiple times during the production process, thus creating the prospect of cascading price increases,” writes Perryman Group CEO M. Ray Perryman, whom the New York Times once described as the “unofficial state economist.” Among the details in Perryman’s report:

• Assuming a sustained 25% tariff on Mexican goods, Texas would lose 287,500 jobs and experience a $36.4 billion loss in annual gross product.
• If a 25% levy on most Canadian products continues, the state would lose an additional 76,000 jobs and $9.6 billion in annual gross product.
• The continuation of a 10% tariff on goods from China and a 25% tax on its steel and aluminum would cost the state 46,000 jobs and $5.8 billion in gross annual product.

Perryman further cautions that Texas’ total loss of 410,000 jobs and $51.7 billion annual gross product don’t include the effect retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries targeted by Trump will have on exports.

“While things are in flux as countries around the globe retaliate and policy changes constantly and unpredictably (which creates its own set of problems), these estimates illustrate the enormous magnitude of the potential costs if the trade war persists,” Perryman writes. “Irrespective of their stated purpose, tariffs are causing disruptions and higher costs across a broad spectrum of the economy. As a major trading state, Texas is particularly hard hit.”
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This article appears in Mar 5-18, 2025.