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The City of San Antonio has finally released an “economic impact analysis” for Project Marvel, its proposed sports-and-entertainment district.

Little surprise the study released last week by consulting firm CSL International projects that new visitors to San Antonio will spend lots of dollars once the arena, convention center expansion, dome improvements and district are done.

The biggest source of that promised upswing in visitor “direct spending” — and all its multiplied cash, jobs and city tax revenue figures — stems from CSL’s projection of more people flocking to the Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center. And those numbers look impressive: 213,800 annual new hotel room nights, 246,000 “non-local visitor days” and $108 million in annual new “direct spending.”

Those rosy predictions are why cities spend hundreds of millions — indeed billions — of dollars expanding their convention centers, often building impressive new hotels right next door. Last December, CSL shared a presentation with City Council showing what all of San Antonio’s competing cities are up to. And our rivals are unafraid to spend big.

Austin is spending $1.6 billion to demolish its existing center and dig a big hole for one twice the size, according to CSL. Meanwhile, Dallas is spending up to $3 billion reconstructing and expanding its Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center, and Fort Worth is weighing in with a $700 million project.

Not do be outdone, Houston will dole out $2 billion in two phases over 10 years create what city officials there are calling the “most sellable and innovative convention facility in North America.” They envision it as a “vibrant, walkable convention and entertainment district unlike anyplace else in the nation.”

Gee, an “entertainment district” — just like the city staff is talking about for good old San Antonio.

But that’s just Texas.

The CSL folks and a representative of the Populous architecture firm also shared a map with City Council in December showing new and proposed “North America Peer Facility Investments.”

That array of projects is similarly impressive, from Boston’s $400 million convention center expansion to the Orlando, Florida area’s $560 million outlay to New Orleans’ $557 million. LA plans to dish out $1.4 billion for its proposed project, and Seattle’s expansion will run $1.9 billion.

Why are all these communities busy expanding convention centers and building hotels in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which diminished downtowns across the country? One answer is that they keep hearing from consultants that an expansion will bring thousands of new convention attendees, generate thousands more in hotel room nights and leave behind hundreds of millions in dollars annually.

For example, in the case of San Antonio, CSL projects we’ll continue to see those big bucks roll annually over 30 years’ time.

Interestingly, a common thread runs between SA and many of those other projects.

In January 2020, Massachusetts received a study saying an expansion of the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center would boost the number of annual hotel room nights from a 2014-2018 average of 509,000 to 855,000. That’s a whopping 68%, in case you don’t have your calculator handy.

The consulting firm that forecast that big growth? Why, once again it was CSL.

The Orlando undertook its project armed with an analysis of the proposed expansion. The “market feasibility study” from CSL International called for more ballroom space, improved connectivity, outdoor event space, informal meeting and gathering spaces along with “enhanced walkable restaurants and nightlife” within the convention center’s vicinity.

In October 2015, New Orleans got its own CSL study of market demand and economic impact from a convention facilities expansion. The consulting firm recommended the development of “unique, creative outdoor/covered space,” a large new headquarters hotel and planning for additional exhibit, meeting and ballroom spaces.

For its part, Phoenix contracted with CSL in 2019 and again in 2022. The consulting firm advised that the city needed to create a “distinctive convention and entertainment district,” including a new 800- to 1,200-room hotel along with street-level retail, restaurant and entertainment uses. Beyond that, the consultant advised the city to invest in more mixed-use development and improve “walkability” to grow its convention business. CSL also recommended a 150,000-square-foot exhibit hall expansion.

Sound familiar?

For Los Angeles, CSL recommended an expansion program including “increased and enhanced exhibit space,” more nearby hotel rooms, a large new ballroom, more meeting areas and “informal meeting/gathering spaces,” including some located outdoors.

All those improvements were forecast to boost the center’s total annual hotel room nights from an average of 287,400 to more than 408,000. As a result of all those new out-of-town visitors, CSL predicted that economic impact from direct spending would grow from $223.4 million annually to more than $302.2 million.

Then there’s Seattle, which completed an expansion that effectively doubled the size of its convention center. CSL’s analysis of the Seattle venue recommended a significant increase in exhibit space, including the addition of more than 300,000 square feet, a major new ballroom, more meeting rooms, a large new headquarters hotel, outdoor space and a “walkable hotel, restaurant, retail and entertainment area.”

From city to city, year after year, the analysis, conclusions and recommendations sound remarkably the same. And those recommendations produce just the same kind of forecast — thousands of new convention attendees, more hotel room nights, hundreds of millions in new economic impact.

In 2003, CSL forecast that an expansion of Philadelphia’s Pennsylvania Convention Center would boost hotel room night generation from an annual average of 503,000 to 786,000. In 2024, the expanded facility generated 411,315 hotel room nights. It’s never even come close to that 503,000 number again.

Other projections by the consulting firm have also missed the mark.

Now San Antonio can join the crowd, trust in the CSL forecasts and hope for the best.

Heywood Sanders is a professor emeritus of public administration at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

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This article appears in Jul 23 – Aug 6, 2025.