San Antonio and Texas housing bubbles may have popped, new data suggests

Three big Texas metros, including San Antonio, reported declines in home values over the 12 months, suggesting the state’s market bubble may have burst, according to real estate data analytics startup ResiClub.

Of the 50 largest U.S. metros, only six logged declines in home values from September 2023 through September of this year, according to data posted on social media platform X by ResiClub co-founder and former Fortune magazine Real Estate Editor Lance Lambert.

San Antonio experienced the third-steepest decline in home values over that time, with prices slipping 2.7% since September of last year. The Alamo City metro, which includes New Braunfels, also posted a nearly 7% reduction in home values since their peak in summer of 2022.

Even so, values in San Antonio are still 32.3% higher on average than they were in March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the data.

San Antonio’s neighbor to the north, Austin, tied with New Orleans for having the largest home value declines. Both metros reported a 4% drop in home values from September 2023. What’s more, home values in Austin are down a dramatic 20.4% since their 2022 peak.

The U.S. metros with the biggest home value declines over the past 12 months, according to ResiClub, include:

• New Orleans: -4%
• Austin: -4%
• San Antonio: -2.7%
• Tampa: -0.5%
• Jacksonville: -0.3%
• Dallas: -0.3%

Texas was the only state to have three separate metro areas report home value declines, according to the new numbers.

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This article appears in Oct 16-29, 2024.