As Texas and the rest of the nation head into midterm elections likely to prove punishing for the party in power, defenders of free and fair elections said they’re preparing for the worst.
Civil rights organizations, elections watchdogs and constitutional attorneys are steeling themselves for attempts by President Donald Trump and his allies to stand in the way of U.S. voters.
While some may assume the preparations are overkill given Trump’s dismal record in court challenges involving the 2020 election, experts point to the Jan. 6 insurrection and the president’s continued lies about massive voter fraud as indicators of what’s to come.
“We know that President Trump and his administration are terrified of losing the upcoming election,” Michael Sozan, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, said during a recent press call. “They and bad actors are actively attempting to sow confusion, fear and doubt about the election system. They appear to be continuing to manufacture lies about the integrity of the elections to enable them ultimately to dispute the valid election results later.”
Democrat James Talarico, who is running against Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, told NBC DFW this week that his team is preparing for whatever his opponent and the GOP throw his way.
“We have a lot of different scenarios prepared for, because we know that Ken Paxton has a history of going after people’s right to vote at the ballot box, and we know he has a history of trying to overturn election results,” Talarico said. “So, we’re ready for that, and we’re going to fight to defend Texans and their rights in the courthouse.”
After the 2020 election, Paxton — a dogged Trump ally — sued the Jolt Initiative, an Austin-based Latino civic engagement group, accusing it of operating an unlawful voter registration scheme. His office also devoted thousands of staff hours in 2020 and 2021 to searching for evidence of widespread voter fraud.
The lawsuit against Jolt was thrown out, and Paxton’s office largely came up empty-handed in its quest to prove President Trump actually won the 2020 election.
This week, U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche raised alarms among democracy advocates after telling reporters he couldn’t rule out the Department of Justice weighing in on the election certification process.
“It’s not the DOJ’s intention to, and it’s never our intention to improperly interfere with elections or the state confirmation process or certification process,” said Blanche, who’s faced repeated criticism for turning the DOJ into Trump’s personal legal team. “But, to say that there are no circumstances that we would ever do that — of course I’m not going to say that.”
Experts such as Sozan said they’re preparing for scenarios that range from Trump sending ICE and National Guard troops to the polls to the president ordering the seizure of voting machines and disrupting the count by declaring a national emergency.
However, experts who spoke to the Current, including Sozan, said they still expect a free and fair election because those scenarios are blatantly illegal. What’s more, U.S. elections are decentralized, with state and county officials responsible for counting ballots. That makes it exceedingly difficult for federal officials to manipulate the results.
“There are huge preparations by pro-democracy forces and allies across the country at the national level, in states and localities, people who are preparing for a lot of these scenarios who have war-gamed this,” Sozan said. “So, as challenging as I think the next few weeks or couple of months might be, most of us are expecting that this election will be free and fair, and that the people’s will [will] be expressed and exercised.”
Sabotage scenarios
Experts said sabotage attempts by Trump and those under his influence could start at polling stations during early voting.
Indeed, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke warned during a San Antonio rally and voter-registration drive last month that Trump was likely to send federal immigration agents to intimidate Latino voters.
“If you look Mexican — if your skin is a shade browner than mine — they’re going to stop you, ask you for your papers, send you back home and scare the rest of your family from even showing up,” the former U.S. Senate, gubernatorial and presidential candidate said.
O’Rourke’s comments came after ICE and Texas DPS conducted a traffic stop at a Bexar County polling station on the West Side during the May primaries. Although authorities wrote off the location of the stop as a mere coincidence, civil rights advocates said it still stoked fear in many.
Even so, such coordinated intimidation efforts have yet to materialize.
A Brazilian national was recently arrested and charged with felony voter intimidation over accusations that he wore an ICE hat and intimidated voters outside a Miami-Dade County polling station. He was not employed by the agency, however.
Although the DOJ last week notified counties, including a handful in Texas, that federal agents will be deployed to monitor polling stations, ACLU Texas senior staff attorney Thomas Buser-Clancy said during a press call last week that deployment of ICE or the National Guard to polling sites is unlikely to occur because the legal prohibitions are so clear.
“There are a multitude of statutes that would make that illegal,” Buser-Clancy said. “There are a host of other laws that prevent and prohibit voter intimidation, as well as specific laws that prohibit members of the military from interfering with elections. All of these laws act as safeguards and would render any attempt to have ICE at the polls illegal.”
Another scenario discussed among civil rights watchdogs is the possibility that Trump could order the National Guard to seize voting machines or pressure local election officials to change or cancel the results.
However, that also would be difficult to pull off, since county officials are clearly charged with counting the votes — regardless of Trump’s wishes. Although the MAGA movement has gained control of portions of the federal government, county election departments largely remain independent from the political pressures coming from Washington, advocates maintain.
“County officials themselves — without state support — are preparing a great deal, and the Texas Association of County Elections Officials has been really at the forefront of making sure that its members, county election officials, are armed with all of the information and resources needed,” Sarah Xiyi Chen, a senior supervising attorney at the Texas Civil Rights Project, recently told members of the press.
Standing vigilant
Mark Lindeman, a policy and strategy director at nonpartisan advocacy group Verified Voting, agrees that it would be nearly impossible for Trump to effectively interfere with local officials’ ballot counting and voting processes.
“Presidents don’t run elections; he can’t snap his fingers and make things turn out the way he wants,” Lindeman said. “In the end, elections belong to voters, and I think election officials around the country are well prepared to tune out the noise and deliver trustworthy results.”
He continued: “When you get down to it, it’s in local officials’ hands despite Trump’s objections to that.”
Local officials are also acting as election watchdogs.
State Sen. José Menéndez, D-San Antonio, told reporters last week that his office is in regular contact with Bexar County Elections Administrator Michele Carew to report potentially concerning incidents at polling sites.
“We need to be prepared, and the only way to be prepared is to have full documentation of everything,” Menéndez said.
The state senator is also encouraging anyone who encounters problems at the polls to contact his office.
The presence of election monitors and legal safeguards don’t guarantee Trump won’t engage in a full-court press to upend election outcomes, however.
The DOJ on Oct. 23 sued to preemptively block Alaska from certifying the results of its U.S. Senate race if the Republican incumbent loses by a narrow margin because he shares a name with another candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., whose party registration is not listed on the ballot.
Election experts predict the courts will reject that suit. However, they said the best way to counter Trump’s attacks is to refuse to be intimidated by them. The most effective way voters can push back is by getting out and cast their ballots — and doing so early.
“The fact that we are preparing for a slew of threats doesn’t mean people should be so worried that they don’t exercise their rights — because that means those nefarious actors have won,” ACLU Texas attorney Buser-Clancy said. “I think for the voters getting excited about voting, getting excited about going with their family to vote is the most important thing I would emphasize.”
Those who encounter issues at the polls or believe their rights are being infringed upon can call 866-OUR-VOTE to report the incident and receive legal advice.
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