Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, left, stands with James Talarico, center, and Gina Hinojosa, right, during a rally in Beeville, Texas. Credit: X / Bobby Pulido for Texas

If a new survey is to be believed, recent Republican gains with South Texas voters may be as fleeting as a cold snap in Laredo.

A poll released Wednesday by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Research and Survey Center asked 1,300 likely voters in deep-red South Texas congressional districts — the state’s 15th, 28th and 34th — who they plan to vote for in their respective U.S. House contests as well as the races for governor and U.S. Senate.

The results show Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico, an Austin-area state rep, with an 8% lead over Republican opponent Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, in those districts. Meanwhile, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, an Austin state rep, is ahead of Gov. Greg Abbott, the GOP incumbent, 47% to 44%.

For reference, Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz held a 9% lead over Democratic challenger Collin Allred in the same survey during the 2024 cycle. Cruz ultimately went on to win by that exact margin. What’s more, President Donald Trump beat Democrat Kamala Harris by margins ranging from 10% to 18% in the same districts.

The Barbara Jordan Center conducted its poll via text message between Aug. 18 and Aug. 22. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

“The data suggests Talarico has locked down a key piece of the Texas puzzle: Hispanic voters,” Ellis Bates, an election analysis fellow at VoteHub, tweeted about the survey.

It’s not just the statewide races that have political analysts raising an eyebrow.

The same poll shows Tejano singer-turned-politician Bobby Pulido with a 5% lead over Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the race for Texas’ 15th Congressional District.

Pulido held a concert and rally in the conservative South Texas town of Beeville last Saturday, where Talarico and Hinojosa also appeared. Nearly 3,000 people attended.

“Monica De La Cruz has had her chance, and she’s made her choice clear — party first, South Texas last. I’m running to put South Texas first and make our communities finally have a voice in Washington,” Pulido said in a statement following the poll’s release.

Meanwhile, in the 28th District, longtime incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar leads Republican challenger Tano Tijerina by 9%, according to the survey, while in the 34th, Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez leads GOP rival Eric Flores by 3%.

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Michael Karlis is a multimedia journalist at the San Antonio Current, whose coverage in print and on social media focuses on local and state politics. He is a graduate of American University in Washington,...