If you’ve been watching the Texas gubernatorial race and sense it’s tight, you’re not alone.
Online prediction markets agree, though they still give Gov. Greg Abbott, the Republican incumbent, the edge.
Prediction market Kalshi gives Abbott 60% odds of prevailing in Tuesday’s election over his Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, according to an analysis by cable network CNBC. However, Hinojosa’s chances climbed rapidly, rising from around 8% in mid-July to 40% Monday.
Separately, on Polymarket, Hinojosa’s odds have risen from a 5% low in late July to 39% on Monday, CNBC’s analysis shows.
Recent polling has also shown the race as virtually tied. As of Tuesday, the RealClearPolitics Poll Average showed Abbott with just a 2.3 point lead.
Prediction markets don’t use methods associated with traditional polling and are no substitute for it, according to political observers. In its reporting, CNBC also disclosed it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes a minority investment.
Hinojosa would be Texas’ first Democratic governor in more than 30 years and the first Latina to hold the office. She’s run an economic populist campaign against Abbott, gaining quickly in the polls despite the three-term incumbent has vastly outspent her campaign.
Texas politics is a mess. We make it a readable mess.
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