The Cook Political Report, one of the most-watched barometers for U.S. political contests, has revised its take on two key Texas races, those for the seat being vacated by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and for the state’s governorship.
After multiple polls showed Democratic contender James Talarico pulling ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, Cook on Thursday updated its rating from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”
At the same time, Cook moved the showdown between incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa from “solid Republican” to “leans Republican.”
“The Lone Star State has long been Democrats’ ‘Lucy and the football,'” Cook Editor Jessica Taylor wrote, explaining Cook’s cautious view of Texas. “Just when they seem poised to finally kick it through the uprights, political gravity yanks the ball away at the last possible moment.”
However, Taylor pointed out that this is shaping up to be “a wave election akin to 2006” on account of President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity. Even states the president won by double digits could “move within Democrats’ reach.”
In the case of Texas’ Senate race, Talarico, an Austin-area state rep, has resonated with voters while raking in campaign cash, according to Cook’s analysis. Meanwhile, Paxton — Texas’ MAGA-aligned attorney general — has accumulated a history of scandal while alienating mainstream voters in his own party.
“We acknowledge that this race could shift back to the GOP once millions of dollars in attack ads are launched at Talarico, and we would adjust our rating accordingly then,” Taylor wrote. “But there may not be much to do to improve Paxton’s fortunes other than to make him the lesser of two evils for partisan voters. That could be enough to save him narrowly, but at this juncture we have to call Texas a Toss Up.”
When it comes to the governor’s race, Abbott’s $67 million war chest could make him nearly invulnerable in a more conventional election cycle, but Cook’s analysis points to poll numbers that show Hinojosa is closing the gap, especially as voters turn on some of the three-term governor’s policies.
“Just look to [Abbott’s] recent shift on data centers as evidence he’s working to combat a changing reality,” Taylor noted. “Hinojosa just went up with an ad attacking Abbott over accepting money from data centers, and Democrats also believe Abbott is vulnerable on school vouchers and the aggressive redistricting plan he pushed through the legislature.”
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