It’s been clear for months that U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s Republican primary battle against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is an uphill fight. Especially since President Donald Trump has been unwilling to throw support behind either of the candidates or potential spoiler U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt.
But new analysis from the Cook Political Report suggests things are so bleak that even insiders in Cornyn’s own campaign are shitting bricks over the prospect that he can’t pull enough votes to force a runoff against Paxton, his scandal-slathered key rival.
Cornyn insiders told the nonpartisan election prognosticator they have “moved past the early stages of grief and are approaching more of a sullen acceptance” that Republican primary voters won’t back the four-term incumbent on Tuesday, much less in in 12 weeks, assuming he can squeak his way into a runoff.
“There’s a feeling of dejectedness that the numbers aren’t better,” one Republican strategist told Cook’s Jessica Taylor. “I don’t think anyone expected Cornyn to win outright, but I think if he finishes a distant second it will be even more bleak.”
Polling numbers bear out the concern, according to Cook.
Cornyn is hovering in the mid-30s, which the publication calls “an ominous sign for any incumbent and particularly for one who has benefitted from such heavy spending.” To point, pro-Cornyn groups have spent $77 million to put his face in front of TV viewers — often in a cowboy hat and yucking it up with Texas sheriffs in front of Trump’s Great Big Beautiful Wall.
The dismal survey numbers aren’t the only reason Cornyn insiders are gnawing their nails, though. As Cook points out, voter turnout usually sinks between a primary and a runoff, something that tends to works to the benefit of the anti-establishment candidate — in this case, Paxton.
“Typically, if voters have soured on such a veteran legislator, their numbers don’t rebound much if the contest goes to a second round,” the article notes. “Cornyn will have the cash advantage and backing from his allies to continue prosecuting the case, but if the numbers don’t start moving, any extra investment could be futile.”
If Cornyn eats dirt on Tuesday or in the runoff, he’ll be the first elected incumbent senator to lose renomination since 2012. Not exactly a proud capper to a decades-spanning political career.
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