Texas Democrats’ optimism and the desperation of the state GOP were on full display over the weekend as candidates flooded the San Antonio area to make their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
Democrats focused on issues including affordability, healthcare and immigration reform, while Republicans ginned up fear about income taxes, Sharia law and transgender youth.
UT-San Antonio political scientist Jon Taylor said Republican candidates’ mad dash through South and Central Texas over the weekend suggests internal polling shows a bloodbath not seen since the blue wave of 2008.
“If you consider where they’re targeting and spending money, it tells me that Republican internal polls must be really bad to see this stuff going on,” Taylor said.
Indeed, Gov. Greg Abbott spent much of Sunday afternoon visiting a Hutto neighborhood in Williamson County — a county Trump won by 2.4 points in 2024.
The three-term Republican governor’s remarks to Austin-based TV station KVUE didn’t sound too reassuring, either.
“What we’re seeing in the early vote is very predictable,” Abbott said. “There’s going to be a big surge, early on, the first couple of days on the Democrat side, and then the Republicans pick up the pace. Second week is going to be a very Republican week.”
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton held a rally at Cooper’s Old Time Pit Bar-B-Que in New Braunfels on Saturday, where a couple hundred gathered to hear him speak.
Hours after that rally, though, the restaurant’s ownership put out a statement on Facebook saying they had no prior knowledge the rally would take place.
“We are not in the business of endorsing candidates,” Cooper’s ownership wrote. “This is the action of a rogue employee and was not authorized by ownership and will be addressed internally.”
The statement has since sparked debate online over whether the owners backtracked after public and customer blowback for hosting the hard-right candidate.
In contrast to a Paxton’s meager turnout, some 1,800 people piled into San Antonio’s Sunset Station on Saturday to see his opponent, Democrat James Talarico. Another few hundred stood outside to hear listen to the state rep’s remarks after the venue reached capacity.
“I’m sad I didn’t get in, but I’m hoping to see him on the way out,” Cristina Cabreara, a self-described “Talafreako,” told the Current while outside the historic building. “We’re ready for change in Texas. We’ve got to get Abbott and Paxton out.”
The contrast between the policies embraced by the Talarico and Paxton campaigns — and the public response to each — shows the precarious situation for Republicans this election cycle, even in traditionally red Texas, UTSA’s Taylor said.
“When you look at the vibe and the polling in South Texas, the anger and animosity toward ICE and toward the treatment of Latinos and brown folks in general in South Texas, combine that with pretty harsh tariffs, [and] everything is in place for Democrats,” he said.
Taylor said he’s unsurprised that both Democrats and Republicans are focusing on San Antonio and South Texas, spending significant time and resources in the region. South Texas is critical for a Democratic victory, as is flipping Tarrant County blue and driving strong turnout in Harris County, he added.
That South Texas opportunity drove House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to San Antonio on Sunday to stump for former Bexar County Sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia, a Democrat running to represent Texas’ 35th Congressional District.
Until just a few months ago, Garcia was a long-shot candidate for a district the Texas Legislature redrew to favor Republicans. This weekend, though, Jeffries attended services at two East Side Baptist churches to help turn out the vote for the one-time deputy.
“That’s why I’m so thankful that Johnny Garcia made the decision to run, to step up to present himself, recognizing that we can’t afford another two years of things going the way they’ve been going, that we’ve got to dramatically move things in a different direction,” Jeffries said to cheers from the predominantly Black congregation.
Even the lieutenant governor’s race, which usually flies under the radar, is drawing media attention.
At least 40 cannabis enthusiasts lined up Sunday at the Kingpin Kush smoke shop on Loop 410 in San Antonio to meet Vikki Goodwin, the Democratic candidate for the office.
Those in attendance, some of whom were veterans, told the Current they’re fed up with incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s ongoing war on THC and cannabis products.
William Hunter, the owner of the San Antonio-based smoke shop chain, said he’s used his stores to register 4,500 people to vote this election cycle. His customer base is riled up over the ever-changing restrictions on the state’s hemp industry under Patrick’s leadership.
“[The THC industry] did $5 billion in sales tax revenue for the state last year,” Hunter said. “The problem is that’s $5 billion in revenue not going to pharmaceutical companies or alcohol companies. That’s money that they’re losing, so they’re trying to lobby politicians and kill the industry. The only way we can fight this is we’ve got to get involved in politics.”
Hunter handed a check to Goodwin’s campaign before she headed off to another stop in Austin.
That so-called “vibe” and enthusiasm is why UTSA’s Taylor thinks Democrats have a real shot of not only winning the U.S. Senate but down-ballot contests as well. In Texas’ 15th District, thousands have shown up to support Tejano-singer-turned-Democratic-congressional-candidate Bobby Pulido in his quest to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz.
However, showing up for rallies and registering to vote are one thing; getting people to the polls is another.
“We can talk all day about vibes and gut feelings, and what we’re hearing about boots on the ground, but the thing Democrats need to be watching for is a blue mirage,” Taylor said.
To be sure, the battle for South Texas isn’t over.
Talarico will return to San Antonio’s St. Paul Square for a Nov. 1 rally at the Espee. The following day, Paxton will conclude his statewide “Come and Take It” tour at the Alamo.
Early voting continues through Oct. 30. Polls will reopen Nov. 3. People can visit the Bexar County Elections Department website to learn whether they’re registered to vote and to find more information on polling sites and operating hours.
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