Poll: Gina Ortiz Jones likely to face Rolando Pablos in San Antonio mayoral runoff

A new poll released Thursday shows former U.S. Under Secretary of the Air Force Gina Ortiz Jones pulling ahead in San Antonio’s mayoral race.

The poll, conducted by nonpartisan Blueprint Polling, shows 23% of likely voters casting their ballot for Jones, while 15% said they back former Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos, the candidate with the next-highest level of support.

Blueprint Polling — which has offices in San Antonio, Atlanta, Memphis and Jackson, Mississippi — surveyed 751 potential voters between April 29-30 via SMS messaging. The poll has a 3.57% margin of error.

“We were not paid by anyone for this [polling],” Blueprint Polling managing partner Brannon Miller told the Current. “It was purely to satisfy our curiosity as San Antonians.”

Of those surveyed, 12% said they plan to vote for tech entrepreneur-turned-politician Beto Altamirano, while District 6 Councilwoman Melissa Cabello Havrda came in fourth with 9% of the total.

District 4 Councilwoman Adriana Rocha Garcia polled at 5.4%, followed by District 9 Councilman John Courage and District 8 Councilman Manny Pelaez, neither of whom broke the 5% threshold.

Of those surveyed, 70% said they had already cast ballots during early voting, which ended Thursday. Election Day is this Saturday, when polls will be open from 7 a.m.-7 p.m.

Of those who already voted, 26% said they cast ballots for Jones, while 18% went for Pablos. Another 12% cast ballots for Altamirano, while 10% went for Havrda.

According to the survey, Jones and Havrda overwhelmingly appeal to very liberal and/or progressive voters, while 41% of people who voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election said they cast ballots for Pablos, who’s funded by a PAC backed by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

If Pablos does make it into a June 7 runoff with Jones, the poll shows him being crushed in the hypothetical matchup by a 20% margin.

A runoff matchup between Jones and Altamirano would be far more competitive, the survey showed. However, if Altamirano wants to make it past Election Day, he’ll need a strong showing from voters between 18 and 29 years of age, the data suggests.

A full list of polling stations is available on the Bexar County Elections website.

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This article appears in Apr 30 – May 13, 2025.