Voters line up to cast their ballots at Lion’s Field in San Antonio. Credit: Sanford Nowlin

With early voting in San Antonio’s mayoral runoff complete, new poll numbers suggests Gina Ortiz Jones and Rolando Pablos are in a virtual tie heading into Election Day, June 7.

A new survey of registered voters released Thursday by Blueprint Polling shows Jones leading Pablos 49%-47%, largely broken down along partisan lines.

Although San Antonio’s citywide elections are officially nonpartisan, Jones has run for Congress twice as a Democrat, and Pablos is a former political appointee of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. Both candidates have received considerable contributions from outside groups aligned with their respective parties.

Blueprint’s numbers show early voters were significantly more Republican in the runoff than in May’s general election. That could spell trouble for Jones since Republicans tend to be more likely to vote on Election Day.

However, hope isn’t lost for Jones’ campaign.

Generally, San Antonio voters prefer Jones to Pablos 50%-41%, according to Blueprint’s data. Moreover, the group’s analysis assumes that, despite recent trends, Democratic turnout on June 7, could be higher than during the early voting period.

That assumption is based on survey results showing individuals who voted in this general election and past ones but haven’t yet cast their ballots are overwhelmingly Democrats.

“The Ortiz Jones campaign may be able to reverse recent trends and turn out Democratic voters in strong numbers on Election Day, in which case she is clearly favored to win,” Blueprint said in a press statement. “Otherwise, this election will be a coin toss.”

Blueprint collected text message-based responses from 901 registered voters June 3-4 to compile its data. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.27%.

Blueprint’s pre-election survey for the May 3 general election proved more accurate in predicting its outcome than similar polling by UTSA’s Center for Public Opinion Research.

Blueprint’s new numbers come as campaign finance reports show Jones’ campaign being outspent on ads. The campaign has also had difficulty picking up endorsements from other San Antonio progressive politicians, ranging from former mayoral candidate Beto Altamirano to termed-out Mayor Ron Nirenberg.

Runoff polls are open 7 a.m.-7 p.m. Residents can check voter registration status and polling site information on the Bexar County Elections Department’s website.

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This article appears in May 29 – Jun 11, 2025.

Michael Karlis is a multimedia journalist at the San Antonio Current, whose coverage in print and on social media focuses on local and state politics. He is a graduate of American University in Washington,...