A new Fox News poll is just the latest good news for Team Talarico. Credit: Instagram / @thedemocrats

Yet another poll suggests U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico stands a chance of becoming the first Democrat elected to statewide office in Texas since 1994.

After one nonpartisan survey earlier this week put Talarico, an Austin-area state rep, ahead of Republican opponent Ken Paxton, Fox News dropped a poll Thursday showing the Democrat with a three-point lead with fewer than 100 days until the election.

According to the Fox News poll conducted between July 23-27, 51% of likely Texas voters said they plan to cast a ballot for Talarico, compared to 48% who said they back Paxton.

Boston-based Democratic polling and research firm Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-leaning polling firm based in Austin, conducted the survey on behalf of Fox News. The pair conducted interviews with 1,006 registered Texas voters. It has a three-point margin of error up or down.

Days earlier, a survey conducted by the nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research reported that Talarico leads Paxton 45%-40%. That company is led by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.

The Fox News count is significant because it’s among the first to show Talarico winning more than 50% of the vote — considered a significant milestone in political polling.

Talarico’s surge during the home stretch of the campaign comes as the scandal-plagued Paxton campaign struggles to get its bearings after weeks of bad press.

This month alone, the Attorney General sparked controversy after going on a European vacation with his alleged mistress, was confronted with a report detailing his $9 million real estate empire with little explanation of how he paid for the 15 properties and was hit with allegations that he may have committed voter fraud.

Those headlines come as he also seeks to shed past accusations of bribery leveled by former allies, a state securities fraud indictment and his near impeachment by the GOP-controlled Texas Legislature.

Indeed, Paxton’s litany of scandals have led top Republican PACs and donors to remain on the sidelines, the New York Times reported this week.

During the second quarter, Talarico’s campaign out-fundraised Paxton’s by a 3-to-1 margin.


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Michael Karlis is a multimedia journalist at the San Antonio Current, whose coverage in print and on social media focuses on local and state politics. He is a graduate of American University in Washington,...