Talarico surges in polls while key Republicans distance themselves from Paxton

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico continues to surge in the polls, with a survey published Friday by Texas Public Opinion Research showing the former San Antonio public school teacher with a five-point lead.

Meanwhile, his opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, struggles to make any gains. Making matters worse for the Republican, he doesn’t appear to be getting much help from his own party. Paxton’s former primary opponent, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, and former President George W. Bush are actively campaigning for other top GOP Senate candidates but not him.

According to the Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted Sept. 19-22, 49% of 1,007 likely Texas voters said they’re casting ballots for Talarico. Only 44% said they plan to vote for Paxton.

The Texas Public Opinion Research poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

That poll follows a tsunami of good polling for Talarico, with Marist, Siena and YouGov reporting the Democrat ahead by 5-6 percentage points this month.

Talarico’s surge comes as Republicans continue to worry about the viability of Paxton’s candidacy because of past controversies, among them a now closed fraud case, impeachment in the Texas House and a messy public divorce.

“Republicans are really pushing their luck with Ken Paxton at the top,” former Republican Texas House Speaker Joe Straus told Bloomberg this week. “He has a list of scandals as long as a CVS receipt.”

Meanwhile, a veteran Texas GOP operative who declined to be named told Politico that Republicans are “bracing for a Talarico victory.”

“The Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be biblical,” the operative said. “The hand-wringing and the blaming. Paxton will blame Cornyn. Trump will blame Paxton.”

Paxton’s campaign is hoping to shore up support among Latinos next week in Fort Worth during a roundtable with the U.S. Hispanic Business Council.

Even so, Paxton still hasn’t accepted an offer to debate Talerico — even on Fox News.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said that decision is wide for the Paxton campaign, explaining that it allows Republicans to keep attacking Talairico in TV and social media ads without Paxton having to answer for his past controversies.

“We’ve seen Ken Paxton confronted even in front of friendly audiences with the litany of his ethical baggage, and it hasn’t gone well,” Rottinghaus told the Current. “As a political storyline, the Paxton campaign would like to minimize the opportunities to have this in front of voters.”

Early voting runs Oct. 19-30, with polls reopening on for Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Texans have until Oct. 5 to check on and update their voter registration status if they want to participate in the 2026 midterms.

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