A large portion of Texas’ supply of fresh produce comes form Mexico, meaning tariffs on that country’s goods would drive up grocery prices. Credit: Shutterstock / rblfmr

Texas is among the U.S. states most likely to feel an economic gut punch from the Trump administration’s trade tariffs, a new study shows.

The Lone Star State ranks 14th among states facing the most potential damage from the White House’s proposed tariffs, researchers for online marketplace Lending Tree found. Roughly 55% of Texas’ imported goods come from Canada, Mexico and China — all of which President Donald Trump has targeted with tariffs.

To determine the study’s rankings, researchers looked at states that are most reliant on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. Shortly after taking office, President Trump slapped a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, prompting that country to impose retaliatory tariffs of its own. Although he agreed to temporarily delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada, they could resume in early March.

Mexico accounts for more than 37% of Texas imports, or nearly $143 billion, according to 2023 U.S. Census Bureau data. Mexico exports a variety of components used in autos, computer equipment and household electronics manufactured in the Lone Star State. Our state also relies heavily on agriculture exports from its southern neighbor.

Meanwhile, Canadian and Chinese imports account for 9.7% and 8.5% of Texas’ imported goods, in respective order, according to Lending Tree’s analysis.

Montana is the most vulnerable to Trump’s trade restrictions, the study notes, since 94% of that state’s imports come from Canada, Mexico and China. On the flip side, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Maryland face the least economic risk since they rely on imports from those countries at levels of just 13%, 21% and 23%, respectively. Economists warn that Trump’s tariffs will lead to higher consumer prices on anything from groceries and cars. They also expect the restrictions to harm vulnerable industries and slow construction as the nation grapples with an affordable housing crisis. Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter last summer raising concerns that Trump’s trade plans would “reignite’’ inflation. What’s more, an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation found that Trump’s threatened tariffs would amount to an average tax increase exceeding $800 per household this year alone.

“It’s insane. These tariffs are just absolutely the stupidest idea,” Trinity University economics professor David Macpherson told the Current last fall. “China ain’t paying for those tariffs. We are. It’s like a sales tax. Imagine if you put a 10% to 20% sales tax on anything you buy manufactured abroad.”

Apparently, consumers agree.

Lending Tree’s report also found that 44% of Americans believe tariffs will negatively affect their finances, and 74% expect rising prices on everyday goods to be a result of the administration’s trade policies. That worry cuts across party lines, according to the poll: 67% of Republicans, 85% of Democrats and 73% of independents expect tariffs to drive up costs.

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This article appears in Feb 19-25, 2025.

Sanford Nowlin is editor-in-chief of the San Antonio Current. He holds degrees from Trinity University and the University of Texas at San Antonio, and his work has been featured in Salon, Alternet, Creative...