HB 311 would have allowed Texas to join 42 other states and the District of Columbia in letting people electronically register to vote. Credit: Flickr / Erik (HASH) Hersman

The number of LGBTQ+ voters in Texas is projected to nearly double by 2040, according to a new report from the Human Rights Campaign.

Currently, only about one in 10 Texas voters, or 12.3% of the state’s eligible voters, identify as a member of the community, according to HRC’s report. However, research suggests the number could double to nearly 20% of the Texas electorate over the next 18 years.

According to the advocacy group’s research, nearly 30% of all voters born after 1997 will identify as members of the LGBTQ+ community.

Although one in every five voters in Texas is projected to identify as LGBTQ+ by 2040, the state’s current political climate is becoming less inclusive for members of the community. Last year, Gov. Greg Abbott doubled down on his party’s anti-transgender politics.

Earlier this year, Abbott ordered state agencies to investigate the parents of transgender youth for what he labeled as child abuse. Last year, the Republican governor signed legislation forcing transgender youth to play on sports teams based on their assigned sex at birth.

According to HRC’s report, the changing electorate could drastically change state and local politics, especially since LGBTQ+ voters have higher turnout rates than other groups.

“LGBTQ+ people are not only currently a veritable and consequential force in determining the fate of national and state elections, but their power and influence will only continue to grow in the upcoming years, offering the potential to permanently transform and reshape the American electoral landscape,” the report said.

Texas isn’t the only state where the LGBTQ+ community is likely to emerge as an increasingly consequential voting bloc. The report also suggests that the number of LGBTQ+ voters will double in the swing states of Georgia and Ohio between 2020 and 2040.

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This article appears in Oct 19 – Nov 1, 2022.

Michael Karlis is a multimedia journalist at the San Antonio Current, whose coverage in print and on social media focuses on local and state politics. He is a graduate of American University in Washington,...