Internal Republican memo warns Ted Cruz’s campaign may be in trouble

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, may have trouble hanging onto his seat this November, according to a new internal polling memo from a GOP super PAC focused on flipping the Senate.

An Oct. 8 Senate Leadership Fund memo obtained by Politico shows Cruz up by a single point against Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Colin Allred. That’s a slide from the three-point lead Cruz had in mid-September polling by the same group.

“Beginning in early August, Colin Allred has been heavily outspending Ted Cruz on TV, closing up the multicandidate ballot to a single point,” the memo reads. “GOP outside groups (including a dedicated Cruz super PAC) joined the fray in late September and narrowed Allred’s spending advantage. We are carefully monitoring additional media placements and will have fresh polling numbers here next week.”

After Cruz barely beat well-funded challenger Beto O’Rourke in 2018, Democratic groups have spent heavily backing Allred. Polls also suggest Cruz is unpopular with constituents, especially after his well-publicized family trip to Cancun while Winter Storm Uri killed dozens in his home state.

The Senate Leadership Fund’s latest numbers suggest Cruz still struggles with popularity despite Texas’ deep-red hue. Just 49% of voters view Cruz favorably, while 48% look at him unfavorably, according to the data. Meanwhile, Allred has a 48% favorability rating, compared to 36% who feel the opposite.

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This article appears in Sep 25 – Oct 15, 2024.