In recent months, San Antonians have shared a chuckle reading news stories about what artificial intelligence programs think the average Alamo City resident looks like or their perceptions of how homes here look compared to those in Dallas, Austin and Houston.
However, that amusement could give way to panic, according to some predictions. AI is poised to cause the loss of some 150,000 jobs in the San Antonio metro area over the next four years, according to a recent study by research firm Chamber of Commerce.
Much of that displacement will be among the city's most vulnerable workers — those with low skills who are already working for low wages, the report also warns. Some of the losses will be offset, naturally, but not by positions the terminated workers can easily slide into.
"Roles such as data analysts, scientists, machine learning specialists and cyber security experts could grow as much as 30% within the next five years" due to expanded use of AI, according to the Chamber of Commerce's analysis.
Trinity University economics professor David Macpherson said he understands concerns about AI, especially in low-wage San Antonio. However, he doubts about the speed at which it can replace humans on the job.
"The Industrial Revolution happened in 1820," Macpherson said. "By 1900, one in three Americans was still farming."
Even though Macpherson doubts AI will send short-term shockwaves through the labor market, he said San Antonio is taking some of the right steps to future-proof its economy. Still, he added, leaders should take steps now to mitigate technology's effects on low-skilled and low-wage workers.
Service sector slump
San Antonio ranks as the No. 6 metro when it comes to risk of AI-spurred job losses between now and 2027, according to Chamber of Commerce. To generate its predictions, the research firm used data from the World Economic Forum (WEF), a non-governmental organization representing multinational companies.
According to the analysis, 149,860 jobs, or 14.29% of all jobs in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro area, are at risk of AI-related replacement. The bulk are in the service industry, which accounts for more than a quarter of all jobs here, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve.
Nationally, the jobs most at risk of AI-related replacement include low-skilled administrative positions such as cashiers, clerks, data entry personnel and bookkeepers. The WEF predicts robots could replace more than 26 million U.S. jobs in those fields by 2027.
Those same office and administrative support occupations have already experienced the steepest employment declines in the San Antonio area over the past five years, according to the study. The space has shed 29,790 jobs locally since 2018.
However, as many as 69 million jobs could be created worldwide due to AI by 2027, the study also predicts. Plus, global gross domestic product is projected to grow by $15 trillion as the new technology expands.
Here's the tradeoff, according to the study: most of the new jobs and wealth will benefit white-collar professionals in the medical, financial and tech fields. In contrast, blue-collar and pink-collar workers — many of whom never recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, let alone the COVID-19 pandemic — are at risk losing their livelihoods.
Brave new world
Although some low-skilled workers will be thrown out of work as AI becomes more integrated, Trinity's Macpherson disputes the study's doom-and-gloom predictions.
Expansions in other parts of the economy will offer other jobs for low-skilled workers, the economist said, pointing to home healthcare aids and personal care aids. Neither of those professions requires a college degree, yet they're among the fastest growing in the U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What's more, local leaders are already preparing San Antonio and its residents for the brave new world of technology, Macpherson argues.
When Boeing signed a seven-year naming rights deal for the Tech Port + Arena at Port San Antonio earlier this year, the aerospace giant — which has hired more than 3,000 Alamo City residents since 2018 — ponied up $2.3 million to help prep San Antonio children for a career in STEM.
Earlier this year, the University of Texas at San Antonio teamed up with the University of Texas Health Science Center to offer a Doctor of Medicine and Master of Science in AI, a five-year dual-degree program.
Local efforts to promote STEM and other industries that might benefit from an AI boom are already paying off, Macpherson added.
Last month, defense contractor General Dynamics unveiled plans to set up cybersecurity operations at Port San Antonio, a venture that will create 50 high-tech, high-skilled jobs.
Although the recent developments suggest the tech revolution isn't passing San Antonio by, Macpherson still recommends that city leaders work to negate the negative effects of AI on the local economy by focusing on job retraining programs.
At the same time, he's not buying warnings of a robot-generated economic apocalypse.
"I mean, 15% of jobs in that quick a time just seems like too much," he said. "AI is still in its infancy, and it's got a lot of errors."
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